Democrats Finally Have the Votes to Make the Electoral College Obsolete
“Blue wave” wins have produced enough Democratic state governments to pass the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact
Several statewide and state legislative contests in this week’s midterm elections have resulted in new Democratic Party “trifecta” governments — places where the party is now in control of both houses of the state legislature as well as the governor’s office.
With these new wins, Democrats have the opportunity to do something once considered nearly impossible: implement a popular vote model for electing future presidents of the United States, to replace the archaic and unpopular Electoral College.
Due to the mechanics of the Electoral College, five presidential “winners” in U.S. history have taken office who did not win the approval of most voters, including twice over the past three decades. While a constitutional amendment would be needed to formally abolish the Electoral College — which is unlikely to happen anytime soon, even after this week’s “blue wave” — there is a workaround called the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, which doesn’t require such an amendment.
Per Article II of the U.S. Constitution, each state is mandated to appoint, “in such manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a number of electors, equal to the whole number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress.” These electors end up voting for president and vice president.
All states today direct their electors to vote based on their own results in presidential races. If a Democratic candidate wins in California, for example, all 54 of its electors are people chosen to support that candidate in the Electoral College.
But under the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, that would change. States that have agreed to abide by the compact would direct their electors to support the candidate who won the national popular vote, not who their state alone voted for. For example, if a Republican candidate won the national popular vote but California voters preferred the Democrat, the state’s electors would be directed to the Republican under the compact.
Such a move would not be unconstitutional, as it complies with the Article II rule that allows states to determine for themselves how to distribute electors.
The compact doesn’t come into play until it is joined by enough states, totaling a majority of all Electoral College votes (at this time, 270 votes of the 538). Currently, only 18 states plus Washington, D.C. have signed on to the compact, totaling 222 Electoral College votes, which means the old, undemocratic system of selecting the president remains in place for now.
Before Tuesday’s elections, multiple paths were under consideration for attaining the remaining 48 electoral votes needed. However, the midterm results have produced one such path.
Democrats have won new trifecta governments in Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Democrats in Arizona are also claiming to have won a trifecta. In total, those five states, which have not yet passed the compact, make up 61 electoral votes. Even without Arizona, the 50 electoral votes the other four states have are more than enough to implement the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.
The question is no longer if Democrats can pass a popular vote model for president, but whether they have the will or determination to do so. If those states opt to join the compact, it could go into effect as soon as the 2028 presidential election.
